BCMoore Rankings - NCAA Basketball

Matchup Report

Sorted by Class, Matchup Score, Home

Home court advantage =    4.57

Modified, Standard, and Momentum are predictions based on game-margin models

Modified = only games with predicted outcomes < abs( 2.5*global stdev) are considered
           blowout games ignored
Standard = all games considered
Momentum = average of last 5 games

                                                                                                    Modified    Standard    Momentum
Date      Level Rank ( W- L) Visitor             Level Rank ( W- L) Home                 Matchup    Line Prob   Line Prob   Line Prob
11/22/2025    1      ( 3- 2) Fairfield              ZZ      ( 2- 3) Le Moyne               87.08   -0.17  51%   0.56  52%  -0.17  51%
11/21/2025    1      ( 3- 3) SC Upstate             ZZ      ( 3- 2) West Georgia           86.31    0.35  51%  -1.97  57%  -3.31  61%
11/21/2025    1   33 ( 3- 1) BYU                     1   23 ( 4- 0) Wisconsin             107.44    1.44  55%   1.48  55%   1.48  55%
11/21/2025    1   52 ( 4- 0) Northwestern            1   13 ( 4- 0) Virginia              105.72    7.74  74%  -1.26  54%  -1.26  54%
11/21/2025    1   30 ( 4- 1) Texas Tech              1   10 ( 5- 0) Purdue                102.76    8.58  76%   4.71  65%   4.86  66%
11/21/2025    1   69 ( 4- 1) Clemson                 1   61 ( 5- 0) West Virginia          99.05    1.18  54%  -4.67  65%  -5.31  67%
11/21/2025    1   55 ( 5- 0) Kansas St               1   28 ( 5- 0) Nebraska               97.92    9.53  79%   7.26  73%   7.56  74%
11/22/2025    1   78 ( 4- 0) Northern Iowa           1  198 ( 3- 2) UC Irvine              97.40   -5.87  69%  -0.01  50%  -0.32  51%
11/21/2025    1   65 ( 4- 0) Cincinnati              1   11 ( 4- 0) Louisville             96.23    9.44  78%   9.46  79%   9.46  79%
11/21/2025    1   37 ( 3- 1) Butler                  1  107 ( 4- 0) South Carolina         95.27   -9.52  79%  -7.05  72%  -7.05  72%
11/22/2025    1  117 ( 5- 0) Penn St                 1   95 ( 3- 2) Providence             95.26    2.76  59%  -3.97  63%  -4.22  64%
11/21/2025    1   47 ( 3- 2) Wake Forest             1  156 ( 1- 3) Memphis                95.11   -7.04  72%  -3.03  60%  -3.98  63%
11/22/2025    1  243 ( 4- 1) Minnesota               1  131 ( 4- 1) San Francisco          94.70    8.96  77%  -0.48  52%  -0.75  53%
11/21/2025    1   66 ( 3- 1) Akron                   1  110 ( 4- 0) Ioan                   93.17   -5.81  69%  -4.14  64%  -4.14  64%
11/21/2025    1  114 ( 3- 2) Austin Peay             1   50 ( 3- 1) Tulsa                  92.55   12.58  85%   6.92  72%   4.93  66%
11/21/2025    1  160 ( 3- 2) Boston College          1   70 ( 4- 0) Davidson               92.05    8.60  76%   4.99  66%   4.38  64%
11/21/2025    1   88 ( 3- 1) Seattle                 1   57 ( 4- 0) Stanford               91.81    8.64  76%   8.51  76%   8.51  76%
11/21/2025    1   79 ( 2- 2) New Orleans             1  202 ( 4- 2) Fresno St              90.31   -5.87  69%   1.45  55%   1.63  55%
11/21/2025    1  239 ( 2- 3) Southern Univ           1  231 ( 1- 3) San Jose St            89.64    5.09  66%   0.58  52%   0.18  51%
11/21/2025    1  155 ( 2- 3) Campbell                1  178 ( 4- 1) UT Arlington           89.28   -1.25  54%   0.66  52%   0.83  53%
11/21/2025    1  143 ( 2- 2) Charlotte               1  241 ( 3- 2) Appalachian St         89.07   -3.42  61%  -1.50  55%  -2.27  58%
11/21/2025    1  163 ( 2- 2) Mississippi St          1  123 ( 3- 2) New Mexico             88.87    7.36  73%   6.92  72%   6.41  70%
11/22/2025    1  151 ( 3- 1) UC Santa Barbara        1  161 ( 3- 2) Nevada                 88.81    4.06  63%   4.82  66%   4.29  64%
11/22/2025    1  121 ( 4- 1) Duquesne                1  191 ( 2- 3) Northeastern           88.81   -4.82  66%  -4.36  64%  -4.82  66%
11/21/2025    1  111 ( 3- 0) N Colorado              1  188 ( 3- 2) St Thomas MN           88.64   -5.14  67%  -4.74  65%  -5.26  67%
11/21/2025    1  170 ( 2- 2) Coastal Car             1  289 ( 1- 4) W Illinois             86.38   -4.43  64%  -3.13  60%  -3.14  60%
11/22/2025    1  233 ( 2- 3) Boston Univ             1  185 ( 4- 2) Harvard                85.50    4.53  65%   3.80  62%   4.33  64%
11/21/2025    1  128 ( 1- 4) Oakland                 1  199 ( 2- 2) Eastern Michigan       85.17   -0.56  52%   4.78  65%   5.09  66%
11/21/2025    1  224 ( 2- 3) Alabama St              1  280 ( 2- 4) IUPUI                  85.14   -3.71  62%   0.03  50%  -0.98  53%
11/21/2025    1   84 ( 4- 1) SF Austin               1  215 ( 3- 2) Pepperdine             84.89   -6.19  70%  -7.09  72%  -9.83  79%
11/22/2025    1  178 ( 4- 1) UT Arlington            1  157 ( 2- 3) Weber St               84.24    5.74  68%   7.50  73%   8.43  76%
11/21/2025    1  210 ( 3- 1) Columbia                1  242 ( 2- 3) Lehigh                 84.12    1.38  55%   4.79  66%   4.92  66%
11/22/2025    1  251 ( 1- 3) North Florida           1  180 ( 2- 3) Southern Miss          84.08    5.99  69%   4.08  63%   4.59  65%
11/21/2025    1  166 ( 4- 1) UC Davis                1   83 ( 4- 0) Colorado               83.99   11.81  84%  11.72  84%  11.21  83%
11/22/2025    1  139 ( 2- 2) UTRGV                   1  299 ( 2- 2) Missouri St            83.99   -7.95  75%  -5.38  67%  -5.38  67%
11/21/2025    1    3 ( 5- 0) Georgia                 1  173 ( 3- 2) Xavier                 83.31  -21.65  96% -20.54  96% -24.49  98%
11/22/2025    1   73 ( 5- 1) High Point              1  236 ( 3- 2) Incarnate Word         82.72  -14.62  89% -13.35  87% -12.85  86%
11/22/2025    1  170 ( 2- 2) Coastal Car             1  295 ( 2- 4) North Dakota           82.23   -9.54  79%  -7.42  73%  -8.09  75%
11/21/2025    1  211 ( 6- 0) South Alabama           1  129 ( 3- 2) Alabama-Birmingham     81.54   10.31  81%  13.16  86%  16.20  91%
11/21/2025    1  296 ( 2- 3) Col Charleston          1  179 ( 3- 1) Massachusetts          81.44    9.13  78%   6.96  72%   8.44  76%
11/22/2025    1  303 ( 2- 2) Mercer                  1  272 ( 1- 3) Eastern Kentucky       81.32    7.61  74%   9.11  78%   9.11  78%
11/21/2025    1  336 ( 1- 3) CS Fullerton            1  253 ( 3- 1) Portland               81.31    8.50  76%  -0.52  52%  -0.52  52%
11/22/2025    1  315 ( 2- 4) Binghamton              1  148 ( 2- 4) MD E Shore             81.28   13.66  87%   0.83  53%  -2.99  60%
11/21/2025    1  261 ( 2- 3) UC Riverside            1  209 ( 3- 1) San Diego              81.00    8.99  77%   7.05  72%   8.11  75%
11/21/2025    1  275 ( 2- 3) Northern Illinois       1  286 ( 1- 4) Loyola-Chicago         80.87    3.75  62%   4.95  66%   3.22  61%
11/21/2025    1  124 ( 2- 4) Montana St              1  291 ( 1- 4) Long Beach St          80.73   -7.74  74%  -8.56  76%  -9.90  80%
11/21/2025    1  229 ( 2- 4) Hampton                 1  217 ( 2- 3) Norfolk St             80.20    6.27  70%   7.83  74%   8.93  77%
11/21/2025    1  228 ( 3- 2) Arkansas St             1   59 ( 5- 0) SMU                    80.04   20.72  96%  18.33  94%  20.45  96%
11/22/2025    1  323 ( 2- 3) North Alabama           1  338 ( 2- 3) Chattanooga            79.38    2.33  58%   4.28  64%   4.08  63%
11/21/2025    1  237 ( 2- 2) Central Conn            1  140 ( 4- 0) Rutgers                79.32   12.47  85%  12.80  86%  12.80  86%
11/22/2025    1  111 ( 3- 0) N Colorado              1  253 ( 3- 1) Portland               79.05   -6.03  69%  -9.61  79%  -9.61  79%
11/22/2025    1  245 ( 3- 2) W Carolina              1  273 ( 1- 4) Lipscomb               79.03    3.06  60%   4.42  64%   2.48  58%
11/22/2025    1  322 ( 2- 3) Howard                  1  269 ( 2- 2) Niagara                79.02    5.31  67%   4.25  64%   5.41  67%
11/21/2025    1  271 ( 2- 2) Penn                    1  214 ( 2- 3) Drexel                 78.99    8.85  77%   8.62  76%   8.31  76%
11/22/2025    1  184 ( 0- 4) Wagner                  1   32 ( 4- 0) Georgetown             78.26   21.09  96%  15.05  90%  15.05  90%
11/21/2025    1  266 ( 3- 1) Tulane                  1   64 ( 4- 0) Utah St                78.07   17.82  93%  17.24  93%  17.24  93%
11/21/2025    1  141 ( 3- 2) SIUE                    1  332 ( 1- 4) Air Force              78.06  -11.91  84%  -8.31  76% -10.40  81%
11/21/2025    1  189 ( 1- 3) Denver                  1   54 ( 4- 0) Colorado St            78.01   17.52  93%  20.38  96%  20.38  96%
11/22/2025    1  336 ( 1- 3) CS Fullerton            1  188 ( 3- 2) St Thomas MN           77.62   13.96  88%   8.93  77%   8.41  76%
11/22/2025    1  221 ( 2- 3) WI Milwaukee            1   58 ( 3- 1) Wichita St             77.61   19.73  95%  18.52  94%  19.31  95%
11/21/2025    1  148 ( 2- 4) MD E Shore              1  304 ( 2- 3) Canisius               77.33   -7.67  74%  -1.94  56%  -0.37  51%
11/21/2025    1   97 ( 3- 1) UNC Wilmington          1  351 ( 2- 4) Radford                77.15  -19.89  95% -12.07  84% -15.28  90%
11/21/2025    1  196 ( 3- 2) Ga Southern             1   15 ( 3- 1) Florida St             76.56   25.38  98%  22.92  97%  22.66  97%
11/21/2025    1  313 ( 1- 4) Georgia St              1  150 ( 3- 2) S Dakota St            76.51   17.74  93%  13.08  86%  13.84  88%
11/21/2025    1  326 ( 3- 3) Samford                 1  116 ( 3- 0) New Mexico St          76.49   21.67  96%  12.04  84%  12.51  85%
11/21/2025    1  276 ( 2- 3) Morehead St             1  167 ( 3- 1) ETSU                   76.18   12.57  85%  12.52  85%  12.96  86%
11/21/2025    1  320 ( 1- 4) Holy Cross              1  290 ( 1- 3) Sacred Heart           75.56    8.20  75%   6.42  70%   7.60  74%
11/21/2025    1  277 ( 3- 3) Charleston So           1  294 ( 2- 2) East Carolina          75.48    3.13  60%   7.82  74%   7.73  74%
11/21/2025    1  244 ( 3- 4) Presbyterian            1  104 ( 4- 1) UCLA                   75.26   15.73  91%  18.69  94%  15.60  90%
11/21/2025    1  227 ( 3- 2) Grambling               1   80 ( 4- 0) Cal Baptist            74.19   17.59  93%  18.05  93%  18.26  94%
11/21/2025    1  316 ( 2- 3) Evansville              1  194 ( 3- 1) Oregon St              73.70   15.01  90%  13.64  87%  14.97  89%
11/22/2025    1  329 ( 2- 2) Ball St                 1  174 ( 3- 2) Indiana St             73.58   18.20  94%  13.31  87%  13.37  87%
11/22/2025    1  337 ( 3- 3) VMI                     1  330 ( 2- 3) Stetson                73.12    5.79  69%   5.26  67%   5.96  69%
11/22/2025    1  288 ( 0- 4) Nicholls St             1   25 ( 5- 0) Oklahoma St            72.63   30.25  99%  22.88  97%  24.78  98%
11/21/2025    1  292 ( 2- 3) Ark Little Rock         1  279 ( 4- 2) Texas St               72.41    5.78  69%  11.52  83%  16.67  92%
11/21/2025    1  257 ( 2- 3) NE Omaha                1   29 ( 4- 0) LSU                    72.03   27.43  99%  26.07  99%  27.05  99%
11/22/2025    1  316 ( 2- 3) Evansville              1  110 ( 4- 0) Ioan                   72.01   21.11  96%  17.01  92%  18.35  94%
11/22/2025    1  168 ( 3- 2) IL Chicago              1  343 ( 1- 4) Southern Indiana       71.90  -16.18  91% -13.78  88% -15.37  90%
11/21/2025    1  197 ( 2- 3) Merrimack               1   17 ( 3- 1) Florida                71.84   24.78  98%  28.32  99%  28.83  99%
11/22/2025    1  302 ( 2- 3) Central Michigan        1  195 ( 3- 3) Marquette              71.81   13.27  87%  18.64  94%  18.34  94%
11/22/2025    1  359 ( 1- 4) ULM                     1  276 ( 2- 3) Morehead St            71.79   14.47  89%   8.62  76%  10.00  80%
11/21/2025    1  246 ( 3- 3) CS Sacramento           1   75 ( 4- 1) California             71.54   19.62  95%  21.10  96%  22.80  97%
11/22/2025    1  305 ( 3- 2) NJIT                    1  127 ( 2- 3) Navy                   71.49   18.59  94%  16.65  92%  18.30  94%
11/21/2025    1  238 ( 1- 4) WI Green Bay            1   20 ( 3- 1) Yale                   71.44   23.27  97%  23.95  98%  24.56  98%
11/21/2025    1  350 ( 1- 4) Lafayette               1  252 ( 1- 5) Stonehill              71.09   16.13  91%  10.32  81%  11.71  84%
11/21/2025    1  333 ( 2- 3) SUNY Albany             1  154 ( 2- 2) Siena                  70.82   19.79  95%  16.11  91%  17.56  93%
11/21/2025    1  334 ( 1- 4) Morgan St               1  321 ( 2- 3) Old Dominion           70.44    6.40  70%  10.27  80%  11.09  82%
11/21/2025    1  297 ( 2- 4) PFW                     1   48 ( 4- 0) Saint Louis            70.01   26.61  99%  24.58  98%  25.54  98%
11/22/2025    1  325 ( 2- 3) Prairie View            1   51 ( 3- 1) TN Martin              69.79   24.90  98%  19.26  95%  20.05  95%
11/21/2025    1  254 ( 2- 4) Loyola MD               1  100 ( 3- 2) Kentucky               69.67   17.05  92%  28.68  99%  29.84  99%
11/22/2025    1  301 ( 2- 4) Cleveland St            1  126 ( 5- 1) Kent                   69.36   18.16  94%  18.86  94%  24.09  98%
11/22/2025    1  248 ( 3- 2) LIU Brooklyn            1   39 ( 4- 1) Illinois               68.71   25.12  98%  31.01 100%  33.53 100%
11/21/2025    1  339 ( 3- 2) Manhattan               1  218 ( 3- 2) Texas A&M              67.72   16.15  91%  20.43  96%  21.22  96%
11/22/2025   ZZ      ( 0- 1) Eastern Oregon          1      ( 2- 2) Idaho                  67.32   19.17  95%  18.13  94%  18.13  94%
11/22/2025    1  348 ( 2- 4) NC Central              1  112 ( 4- 1) Dayton                 65.34   26.38  99%  23.97  98%  24.15  98%
11/21/2025    1  312 ( 1- 4) Louisiana               1   36 ( 5- 0) Santa Clara            64.79   30.96 100%  28.57  99%  31.10 100%
11/21/2025    1  331 ( 1- 4) Army                    1  153 ( 2- 2) Marist                 64.42   19.81  95%  20.15  95%  22.20  97%
11/22/2025    1  358 ( 1- 5) MA Lowell               1  307 ( 1- 3) St Peter's             63.74   13.29  87%  15.48  90%  18.69  94%
11/21/2025    1  269 ( 2- 2) Niagara                 1    1 ( 5- 0) Duke                   62.83   39.24 100%  40.55 100%  43.24 100%
11/21/2025    1  314 ( 1- 4) Detroit                 1   21 ( 4- 0) Michigan St            61.88   33.82 100%  31.70 100%  32.91 100%
11/21/2025    1  318 ( 1- 4) Northwestern LA         1  119 ( 2- 2) Grand Canyon           61.84   20.34  96%  24.18  98%  26.98  99%
11/22/2025    1  354 ( 0- 5) Gardner Webb            1   96 ( 4- 0) Richmond               61.34   30.28  99%  22.34  97%  25.14  98%
11/21/2025    1  355 ( 0- 4) Jackson St              1   31 ( 4- 1) Arkansas               54.45   40.43 100%  34.01 100%  34.68 100%
11/22/2025    1  345 ( 1- 5) MS Valley St            1  263 ( 2- 3) CS Bakersfield         53.32   14.37  88%  23.48  98%  21.69  96%
11/22/2025    1  356 ( 1- 6) Coppin St               1   40 ( 2- 2) VCU                    51.58   38.27 100%  36.73 100%  37.64 100%
11/22/2025   ZZ      ( 0- 3) Nobel                   1      ( 1- 5) Southern Utah          40.49   24.01  98%  25.73  98%  21.87  97%
11/21/2025   ZZ      ( 0- 3) Nobel                   1      ( 3- 4) Utah Tech              36.95   33.25 100%  32.83 100%  32.82 100%
11/21/2025   ZZ      ( 0- 1) Justice                 1      ( 2- 3) Idaho St               34.58   42.29 100%  41.61 100%  42.29 100%
11/21/2025   ZZ      ( 0- 1) Fisk                    1      ( 4- 0) Belmont                 9.67   58.37 100%  58.07 100%  58.07 100%
11/21/2025   ZZ      ( 0- 1) Erskine                 1      ( 3- 2) Wofford                 8.90   55.87 100%  55.37 100%  54.61 100%
11/21/2025   ZZ      ( 0- 1) Regent                  1      ( 3- 2) William & Mary         -6.97   74.84 100%  69.83 100%  70.93 100%