BCMoore Rankings - NCAA Football
C = conference
* = game played against a conference opponent
D = district
* = game played against a district opponent
Stren = rating of individual game played by team, standard regression
O = overtime
Resid = measure of team performance versus expectation.
Negative Resid = team played below expectations.
Positive Resid = team played above expectations.
M = modifications:
X = game is excluded from pre-regression data set.
* = game is excluded when developing post-regression Mod score.
pre-game predict = prediction is based on information known before the game is played.
current predict = prediction is based on current information.
Team Stdev = measure of variability of the team based on Stren scores.
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Toledo
Class: 1A Class Rank: 89 Overall: (5-2) Overall Strength = 144.73
Conference: Mid-American Conference Record: (2-1) | District: 1A-01 Record: (4-2)
pre-game current
N Date Location C D Stren Pts Opp O Cl Rnk (W-L) Opponent Resid M Predict Predict
1 09-04-2026 Away L * 147.70 20 30 1A 59 (2-5) Michigan St -0.27 0.75 -9.73
2 09-12-2026 Home W 167.40 63 10 1B 54 (3-3) Central Conn St 19.43 * 24.78 33.57
3 09-19-2026 Home W * 138.24 49 48 1A 103 (2-5) Temple -9.73 0.71 10.73
4 09-26-2026 Home W * 164.71 41 16 1A 106 (3-4) San Diego St 16.74 8.39 8.26
5 10-03-2026 Away W * * 147.51 39 24 1A 132 (2-5) Ball St -0.46 24.10 15.46
6 10-10-2026 Home L * * 115.47 8 23 1A 116 (4-3) Buffalo -32.50 32.92 17.50
7 10-17-2026 Away W * * 154.75 34 14 1A 123 (4-4) Eastern Michigan 6.78 4.37 13.22
8 10/24/2026 Home * * 1A 83 (5-2) Western Michigan 0.35
9 11/04/2026 Away * * 1A 138 (1-6) Sacramento St 32.11
10 11/11/2026 Home * * 1A 117 (4-3) Massachusetts 12.94
11 11/20/2026 Home * * 1A 121 (2-5) Bowling Green 13.52
12 11/27/2026 Away * * 1A 96 (5-2) Ohio U. -0.23
Averages 147.97 36.3 23.6
Best game: 167.40 = 53 point win over Central Conn St
Worst game: 115.47 = 15 point loss to Buffalo
Team stdev: 17.58