BCMoore Rankings - NCAA Football

Matchup Report

Sorted by Class, Matchup Score, Home

Home field advantage =    2.06

Modified, Standard, and Momentum are predictions based on game-margin models

Modified = only games with predicted outcomes < abs( 2.5*global stdev) are considered
           blowout games ignored
Standard = all games considered
Momentum = average of last 5 games

                                                                                                    Modified    Standard    Momentum
Date      Level Rank ( W- L) Visitor             Level Rank ( W- L) Home                 Matchup    Line Prob   Line Prob   Line Prob
11/22/2025   1A   13 ( 8- 2) Southern Cal           1A    5 ( 9- 1) Oregon                171.88   11.89  83%   9.28  77%   6.68  71%
11/22/2025   1A   22 ( 7- 3) Missouri               1A   12 ( 8- 2) Oklahoma              165.95    7.57  73%   6.76  71%   4.51  64%
11/22/2025   1A   30 ( 7- 3) Pittsburgh             1A   44 ( 9- 1) Georgia Tech          163.16   -2.70  59%  -2.02  56%  -5.93  68%
11/22/2025   1A   36 ( 7- 3) Louisville             1A   32 ( 7- 3) SMU                   162.13    3.54  61%   1.82  56%  13.49  86%
11/22/2025   1A   21 ( 7- 3) Tennessee              1A   41 ( 3- 7) Florida               161.58   -6.19  69%  -6.11  69%  -8.13  74%
11/22/2025   1A   42 ( 7- 3) Nebraska               1A   24 ( 4- 6) Penn State            160.92    8.78  76%   7.13  72%  12.74  85%
11/22/2025   1A   46 ( 6- 4) TCU                    1A   52 ( 8- 2) Houston               160.23    0.66  52%   0.66  52%   6.87  71%
11/22/2025   1A   14 ( 9- 1) Brigham Young          1A   38 ( 7- 3) Cincinnati            160.22   -8.99  77%  -9.37  78% -11.64  83%
11/22/2025   1A   34 ( 5- 5) Kentucky               1A   15 ( 8- 2) Vanderbilt            158.87   11.13  82%  10.35  80%   2.14  57%
11/22/2025   1A   37 ( 2- 8) Arkansas               1A   18 ( 7- 3) Texas                 156.55    9.43  78%  10.05  79%   9.44  78%
11/22/2025   1A   51 ( 5- 5) Kansas                 1A   40 ( 6- 4) Iowa St               154.95    3.98  63%   6.97  71%   4.58  64%
11/21/2025   1A   28 ( 5- 5) Florida St             1A   57 ( 5- 5) North Carolina St     154.36   -6.53  70% -10.57  80%  -4.34  64%
11/22/2025   1A   20 ( 7- 3) Illinois               1A   63 ( 3- 7) Wisconsin             153.74  -12.21  84% -10.21  80%  -7.61  73%
11/22/2025   1A   69 ( 6- 4) Minnesota              1A   48 ( 5- 5) Northwestern          152.37    7.24  72%   5.04  66%   8.65  76%
11/22/2025   1A   19 ( 8- 2) Michigan               1A   55 ( 4- 6) Maryland              151.98   -9.71  78% -12.16  84% -14.47  88%
11/22/2025   1A   62 ( 5- 5) Washington St          1A   26 ( 9- 1) James Madison         151.02   13.80  87%   9.43  78%   9.27  77%
11/22/2025   1A   56 ( 5- 5) Baylor                 1A   27 ( 7- 3) Arizona               150.58   10.49  80%  11.42  82%  12.63  85%
11/22/2025   1A   45 ( 7- 3) Arizona St             1A   68 ( 3- 7) Colorado              150.31   -5.41  67%  -6.89  71% -12.97  85%
11/22/2025   1A   39 ( 7- 3) East Carolina          1A   74 ( 5- 5) Texas-San Antonio     150.07   -8.37  75%  -7.82  74%  -1.71  55%
11/22/2025   1A   80 ( 5- 5) Utah St                1A   86 ( 7- 3) Fresno St             149.92    0.46  51%  -0.91  53%   1.53  55%
11/21/2025   1A   72 ( 7- 3) Hawaii                 1A   79 ( 8- 2) UNLV                  148.81    0.70  52%   2.67  59%  -7.64  73%
11/22/2025   1A   85 ( 6- 4) California             1A   88 ( 3- 7) Stanford              147.84    0.60  52%   1.55  55%   3.56  61%
11/22/2025   1A   49 ( 5- 5) Kansas St              1A    6 ( 8- 2) Utah                  147.63   23.74  97%  24.55  98%  26.15  98%
11/22/2025   1A   64 ( 8- 2) Tulane                 1A   92 ( 5- 5) Temple                146.52   -6.69  71%  -6.02  69%  -4.76  65%
11/22/2025   1A   17 ( 7- 3) Washington             1A   65 ( 3- 7) UCLA                  146.44  -14.72  88% -17.57  92% -12.26  84%
11/22/2025   1A   77 ( 7- 3) New Mexico             1A   98 ( 3- 7) Air Force             144.47   -4.82  65%  -4.75  65%  -0.52  52%
11/22/2025   1A   73 ( 3- 7) Michigan St            1A    9 ( 6- 4) Iowa                  143.74   27.40  99%  19.52  94%  33.19 100%
11/22/2025   1A   54 ( 5- 5) Duke                   1A   95 ( 4- 6) North Carolina        142.45  -11.15  82% -10.46  80%  -1.01  53%
11/22/2025   1A  100 ( 7- 3) Jacksonville St        1A  109 ( 5- 5) Florida Int'l         141.09   -0.65  52%  -0.86  53%   6.74  71%
11/22/2025   1A    8 ( 8- 2) Miami FL               1A   81 ( 3- 7) Virginia Tech         140.73  -25.85  98% -23.43  97% -19.66  94%
11/22/2025   1A   61 ( 5- 5) Rutgers                1A    2 (10- 0) Ohio State            139.81   32.91 100%  31.78  99%  36.85 100%
11/20/2025   1A  103 ( 4- 6) Louisiana-Lafayette    1A  108 ( 5- 5) Arkansas St           139.42    0.59  52%   1.80  56%   4.74  65%
11/22/2025   1A   83 ( 8- 3) Connecticut            1A  105 ( 4- 6) Florida Atlantic      139.24   -7.02  71%  -8.02  74%  -3.13  60%
11/22/2025   1A   97 ( 7- 3) Missouri St            1A   82 ( 7- 3) Kennesaw St           138.88    7.15  72%   7.11  72%   9.95  79%
11/22/2025   1A   96 ( 7- 3) Southern Miss          1A  113 ( 3- 7) South Alabama         138.20   -4.67  65%  -4.67  65%  -5.16  66%
11/22/2025   1A  102 ( 4- 6) Liberty                1A   84 ( 5- 5) Louisiana Tech        136.54   10.28  80%  10.28  80%  -1.96  56%
11/19/2025   1A   93 ( 5- 5) Miami OH               1A  120 ( 5- 5) Buffalo               135.82   -6.95  71%  -7.06  72% -10.79  81%
11/22/2025   1A   91 ( 5- 5) Marshall               1A  122 ( 4- 6) Appalachian St        135.26   -8.16  75%  -7.56  73%  -8.74  76%
11/22/2025   1A  126 ( 3- 7) New Mexico St          1A  128 ( 2- 8) UTEP                  135.20    1.01  53%   2.60  58%   1.19  54%
11/22/2025   1A  111 ( 2- 8) Nevada                 1A   99 ( 4- 6) Wyoming               135.06    6.15  69%   7.61  73%   6.25  69%
11/22/2025   1A   71 ( 7- 3) Old Dominion           1A  110 ( 5- 5) Georgia Southern      134.18  -10.83  81% -15.05  89%  -2.06  57%
11/22/2025   1A   94 ( 8- 2) Western Kentucky       1A   25 ( 6- 4) LSU                   134.09   23.79  97%  23.79  97%  23.22  97%
11/22/2025   1A  106 ( 3- 7) Tulsa                  1A   78 ( 5- 4) Army                  134.06   12.94  85%  12.94  85%  12.03  83%
11/18/2025   1A   76 ( 6- 4) Western Michigan       1A  121 ( 3- 7) Northern Illinois     133.99  -12.32  84% -10.80  81%  -9.57  78%
11/22/2025   1A  114 ( 2- 8) Colorado St            1A   60 ( 6- 4) Boise St              131.10   19.95  95%  18.47  93%  17.64  92%
11/22/2025   1B    7 ( 9- 1) Mercer                 1A   31 ( 4- 6) Auburn                130.91   24.95  98%  24.57  98%  14.22  87%
11/19/2025   1A  104 ( 6- 4) Central Michigan       1A  129 ( 4- 6) Kent St               130.51   -5.14  66%  -7.72  73%  -6.79  71%
11/22/2025   1A   89 ( 3- 7) Syracuse               1A    4 ( 8- 2) Notre Dame            130.24   37.41 100%  35.70 100%  40.93 100%
11/18/2025   1A  124 ( 4- 7) Akron                  1A  118 ( 3- 7) Bowling Green         129.93    3.19  60%   6.66  70%  -0.91  53%
11/22/2025   1A  112 ( 3- 7) San Jose St            1A   59 ( 8- 2) San Diego St          128.86   19.72  94%  20.53  95%  26.26  98%
11/22/2025   1A  119 ( 5- 5) Delaware               1A   58 ( 7- 3) Wake Forest           127.07   21.25  96%  21.25  96%  31.13  99%
11/22/2025   1A  117 ( 1- 9) Oklahoma St            1A   67 ( 4- 6) Central Florida       126.77   17.40  92%  19.53  94%  15.77  90%
11/22/2025   1A  133 ( 2- 8) Sam Houston St         1A  131 ( 1- 9) Middle Tennessee St   125.36    3.99  63%   5.25  66%   2.91  59%
11/22/2025   1A  115 ( 6- 4) Coastal Carolina       1A   35 ( 3- 7) South Carolina        125.01   27.68  99%  26.56  98%  20.85  95%
11/22/2025   1A   23 ( 7- 3) South Florida          1A  125 ( 3- 7) Alabama-Birmingham    124.83  -30.02  99% -28.69  99% -32.15 100%
11/22/2025   1A   29 ( 9- 1) North Texas            1A  123 ( 5- 5) Rice                  124.79  -26.99  99% -28.14  99% -29.11  99%
11/22/2025   1A  134 ( 1- 9) Georgia St             1A  101 ( 6- 4) Troy                  121.36   17.04  92%  15.33  89%  18.49  93%
11/22/2025   1A  130 ( 4- 6) Ball St                1A   53 ( 6- 4) Toledo                117.35   28.46  99%  29.77  99%  31.37  99%
11/22/2025   1A  132 ( 3- 7) Louisiana-Monroe       1A   90 ( 4- 6) Texas St-San Marcos   115.67   20.17  95%  22.78  97%  23.19  97%
11/22/2025   1A  135 ( 1- 9) UNC-Charlotte          1A    7 ( 9- 1) Georgia               103.52   55.74 100%  50.41 100%  53.02 100%
11/18/2025   1A  136 ( 0-10) Massachusetts          1A   87 ( 6- 4) Ohio U.                98.76   41.22 100%  35.27 100%  40.46 100%
11/22/2025   1B   84 ( 6- 5) Furman                 1A   43 ( 5- 5) Clemson                96.66   44.30 100%  44.30 100%  50.94 100%
11/22/2025   1B   89 ( 3- 8) Eastern Illinois       1A   11 ( 8- 2) Alabama                82.69   62.85 100%  65.05 100%  66.76 100%
11/22/2025   1B  113 ( 1-10) Samford                1A   10 (10- 0) Texas A&M              73.63   73.08 100%  70.04 100%  72.05 100%
11/22/2025   1B    3 ( 9- 2) Montana St             1B    5 (11- 0) Montana               146.27   -3.33  61%  -6.82  71% -17.32  92%
11/22/2025   1B   16 ( 6- 5) Southern Illinois      1B   18 ( 8- 3) Illinois St           136.57    1.69  55%   1.57  55%  14.79  88%
11/22/2025   1B   21 ( 5- 6) Idaho St               1B   25 ( 4- 7) Idaho                 136.23    0.39  51%  -0.47  52%   1.34  54%
11/22/2025   1B   20 ( 7- 4) Sacramento St          1B    8 ( 7- 3) UC-Davis              135.15    6.98  71%   4.25  63%   7.21  72%
11/22/2025   1B    6 ( 9- 0) Harvard                1B   23 ( 7- 2) Yale                  134.40   -6.88  71%  -6.56  70%   0.66  52%
11/22/2025   1B   12 ( 7- 4) South Dakota St        1B    4 ( 7- 4) North Dakota          133.74   13.45  86%  10.56  80%  22.79  97%
11/22/2025   1B   28 ( 7- 4) Austin Peay            1B    2 (10- 1) Tarleton St           126.94   23.28  97%  20.19  95%  31.43  99%
11/22/2025   1B   46 ( 3- 6) Princeton              1B   50 ( 5- 4) Pennsylvania          125.78    1.22  54%   1.22  54%  -4.24  63%
11/22/2025   1B   32 ( 7- 2) Dartmouth              1B   54 ( 4- 5) Brown                 124.61   -4.53  64%  -4.53  64% -14.46  88%
11/22/2025   1B   11 (11- 0) Lehigh                 1B   44 ( 8- 3) Lafayette             123.32  -10.75  81% -10.75  81% -11.19  82%
11/22/2025   1B   45 ( 4- 7) Eastern Kentucky       1B   75 ( 2- 9) Utah Tech             122.85   -3.61  61%  -2.73  59%  -4.20  63%
11/22/2025   1B   63 ( 5- 6) Lindenwood             1B   76 ( 4- 7) SE Missouri St        121.63    0.37  51%   1.51  55%   8.03  74%
11/22/2025   1B   78 ( 5- 6) Chattanooga            1B   41 ( 5- 6) Wofford               121.55    9.42  78%   5.46  67%   6.10  69%
11/22/2025   1B   38 ( 5- 6) Eastern Washington     1B   27 ( 3- 8) Cal Poly SLO          121.18    7.23  72%   9.76  78%  -3.52  61%
11/22/2025   1B   51 ( 8- 3) South Carolina St      1B   74 ( 8- 3) Delaware St           120.35   -2.25  57%  -4.28  64%  -2.78  59%
11/22/2025   1B   17 ( 7- 4) Abilene Christian      1B   55 ( 3- 8) Central Arkansas      120.25  -10.82  81% -11.58  83% -10.56  80%
11/22/2025   1B   14 ( 7- 4) Youngstown St          1B   59 ( 3- 8) Northern Iowa         119.59  -12.60  85% -12.68  85% -16.09  90%
11/22/2025   1B   61 ( 6- 5) Maine                  1B   34 ( 7- 4) New Hampshire         117.23   10.69  81%  10.69  81%  14.32  88%
11/22/2025   1B   67 ( 4- 7) The Citadel            1B   31 ( 6- 5) East Tennessee St     116.72   12.02  83%  10.94  81%  17.60  92%
11/22/2025   1B   19 ( 7- 4) Northern Arizona       1B   77 ( 3- 8) Weber St              114.85  -14.80  88% -14.97  89% -19.16  94%
11/22/2025   1B   83 ( 6- 5) Richmond               1B   42 ( 7- 4) William & Mary        113.78   10.48  80%  10.46  80%  15.06  89%
11/22/2025   1B   93 ( 5- 6) Mercyhurst             1B   66 ( 7- 4) Central Conn St       113.60   10.47  80%   5.56  67%  19.49  94%
11/22/2025   1B   79 ( 4- 7) McNeese St             1B   35 ( 8- 3) Lamar                 113.54   12.39  84%  11.97  83%   8.06  74%
11/22/2025   1B   47 ( 7- 4) St Thomas MN           1B    1 (11- 0) North Dakota St       111.78   35.90 100%  32.30 100%  26.36  98%
11/22/2025   1B   60 ( 6- 5) Tennessee-Martin       1B    9 (10- 1) Tennessee Tech        111.56   20.56  95%  22.11  96%   9.80  79%
11/20/2025   1B   71 ( 4- 7) Nicholls St            1B   13 ( 8- 3) SE Louisiana          111.29   19.03  94%  20.29  95%  19.89  95%
11/22/2025   1B   15 ( 6- 5) Southern Utah          1B   80 ( 2- 9) North Alabama         111.11  -15.79  90% -17.97  93% -19.07  94%
11/22/2025   1B   82 ( 8- 3) Sacred Heart           1B   29 ( 8- 2) Villanova             110.12   16.71  91%  16.98  91%  17.08  92%
11/22/2025   1B   95 ( 6- 5) Georgetown DC          1B   73 ( 2- 9) Holy Cross            109.89    8.01  74%   8.01  74%   5.01  66%
11/22/2025   1B   88 ( 3- 8) East Texas A&M         1B   33 ( 8- 3) Texas-Rio Grande Val  109.76   15.26  89%  14.99  89%  18.94  94%
11/22/2025   1B   85 ( 2- 9) Campbell               1B   53 ( 5- 6) Towson                109.59   10.67  81%  11.97  83%  15.75  90%
11/22/2025   1B   97 ( 0-11) Murray St              1B   62 ( 3- 8) Indiana St            109.21   12.08  84%   9.10  77%  11.85  83%
11/22/2025   1B   90 ( 1-10) Portland St            1B   52 ( 3- 8) Northern Colorado     109.00   12.17  84%  10.89  81%   7.74  73%
11/22/2025   1B   92 ( 1- 8) Columbia               1B   65 ( 4- 5) Cornell               108.65   10.46  80%  10.46  80%  18.66  93%
11/22/2025   1B   91 ( 3- 8) Bryant                 1B   43 ( 5- 6) Stony Brook           107.79   14.67  88%  13.80  87%  15.06  89%
11/22/2025   1B   56 ( 7- 4) North Carolina Centr   1B   96 ( 4- 7) Morgan St             107.13   -9.46  78% -10.66  81%  -8.62  76%
11/22/2025   1B   98 ( 3- 8) Western Illinois       1B   39 ( 7- 4) Gardner-Webb          106.93   18.09  93%  14.94  89%  10.52  80%
11/22/2025   1B  100 ( 5- 6) Bucknell               1B   72 ( 4- 7) Colgate               105.60   11.67  83%  11.74  83%  10.84  81%
11/22/2025   1B  104 ( 5- 6) Wagner                 1B   81 ( 5- 6) LIU                   104.98   11.92  83%  10.33  80%   8.39  75%
11/22/2025   1B  112 ( 1-10) Norfolk St             1B  108 ( 4- 7) Howard                104.65    4.07  63%   3.33  61%  -3.90  62%
11/22/2025   1B  103 ( 5- 6) Marist                 1B   58 ( 9- 2) Presbyterian          103.33   15.59  90%  13.79  87%  13.31  86%
11/22/2025   1B   69 ( 6- 5) Duquesne               1B  111 ( 3- 8) Robert Morris         103.25  -12.98  85% -11.33  82% -13.49  86%
11/22/2025   1B  105 ( 1-10) Fordham                1B   87 ( 3- 8) Merrimack             101.79    8.76  76%  11.79  83%   8.11  74%
11/22/2025   1B   40 ( 4- 7) Incarnate Word         1B  107 ( 2- 9) Houston Christian      99.34  -17.15  92% -19.00  94% -18.60  93%
11/22/2025   1B  116 ( 5- 5) Florida A&M            1B   99 ( 5- 6) Bethune-Cookman        99.30    8.14  74%  10.58  80%   6.02  69%
11/22/2025   1B  120 ( 4- 7) Alabama A&M            1B  106 ( 5- 5) Texas Southern         98.59   10.58  80%   9.06  77%  10.98  81%
11/22/2025   1B  110 ( 1-10) Albany NY              1B   24 ( 9- 2) Monmouth NJ            98.29   29.92  99%  24.99  98%  30.46  99%
11/22/2025   1B  114 ( 2- 9) Tennessee St           1B   70 ( 4- 7) Charleston Southern    96.41   18.01  93%  18.76  94%  15.41  89%
11/22/2025   1B  109 ( 5- 6) Alcorn St              1B   49 ( 8- 2) Jackson St             96.09   19.61  94%  20.71  95%  12.76  85%
11/22/2025   1B  121 ( 0-10) St Francis PA          1B  101 ( 3- 8) Stonehill              92.59   13.76  87%  13.65  87%   6.71  71%
11/22/2025   1B   37 ( 6- 5) Western Carolina       1B  115 ( 1-10) VMI                    91.64  -22.82  97% -24.87  98% -35.91 100%
11/22/2025   1B  118 ( 2- 9) North Carolina A&T     1B   57 ( 5- 6) Elon                   88.65   23.64  97%  26.22  98%  21.87  96%
11/22/2025   1B  128 ( 2- 9) Valparaiso             1B   94 ( 5- 6) Butler                 83.81   23.51  97%  20.98  95%  20.09  95%
11/22/2025   1B  123 ( 6- 5) Morehead St            1B   48 ( 7- 3) Drake                  82.47   30.27  99%  31.29  99%  27.54  99%
11/22/2025   1B   86 ( 6- 4) Dayton                 1B  126 ( 2- 9) Davidson               81.36  -18.97  94% -23.27  97% -17.35  92%
11/22/2025   1B  124 ( 3- 7) Arkansas-Pine Bluff    1B   36 ( 8- 2) Alabama St             81.33   34.87 100%  32.24 100%  34.50 100%
11/20/2025   1B   10 ( 9- 2) Stephen F. Austin      1B  119 ( 1-10) Northwestern St        81.12  -37.05 100% -39.11 100% -46.95 100%
11/22/2025   1B  127 ( 1- 9) Mississippi Valley S   1B   68 ( 8- 3) Prairie View A&M       80.55   31.16  99%  27.36  99%  32.68 100%
11/22/2025   1B  122 ( 2- 9) Hampton                1B   22 ( 9- 2) Rhode Island           80.52   39.05 100%  38.16 100%  51.19 100%
11/22/2025   1B   64 ( 7- 4) San Diego              1B  129 ( 3- 8) Stetson                73.27  -29.19  99% -32.84 100% -27.82  99%