BCMoore Rankings - NCAA Football

Matchup Report

Sorted by Class, Matchup Score, Home

Home field advantage =    2.27

Composite = weighted composite of 6 subrankings: 3 based on win/loss-only models and 3 based on game-margin models

Modified, Standard, and Momentum are predictions based on game-margin models

Modified = only games with predicted outcomes < abs( 2.5*global stdev) are considered
           blowout games ignored
Standard = all games considered
Momentum = average of last 5 games

                                                                                                    Composite   Modified    Standard    Momentum
Date      Level Rank ( W- L) Visitor             Level Rank ( W- L) Home                 Matchup    Line Prob   Line Prob   Line Prob   Line Prob
11/25/2017   1A   11 (11- 0) Alabama                1A    2 ( 9- 2) Auburn                177.68  -11.72  83%   8.09  74%  -4.66  65%  -1.71  55%
11/25/2017   1A    7 ( 9- 2) Notre Dame             1A   22 ( 8- 3) Stanford              169.15  -10.80  81%  -8.64  76%  -7.40  72%  -1.09  53%
11/25/2017   1A    1 ( 9- 2) Ohio State             1A   20 ( 8- 3) Michigan              166.56   -7.85  74% -12.04  83% -13.04  85%  -8.56  75%
11/25/2017   1A    6 (10- 1) Georgia                1A   29 ( 5- 5) Georgia Tech          165.69  -23.32  97% -11.32  82%  -8.39  75%  -7.91  74%
11/25/2017   1A   18 ( 7- 4) Iowa St                1A   40 ( 6- 5) Kansas St             163.71   -5.88  68%  -5.64  67%  -5.74  68%  -2.26  57%
11/25/2017   1A   37 ( 7- 4) Arizona                1A   50 ( 6- 5) Arizona St            161.36   -3.26  60%  -1.49  55%  -2.26  57%  -1.34  54%
11/25/2017   1A   28 ( 9- 2) Washington St          1A   13 ( 9- 2) Washington            161.30    7.16  72%  11.37  82%  13.24  86%  14.40  88%
11/24/2017   1A   47 ( 5- 6) California             1A   54 ( 5- 6) UCLA                  160.66    1.92  56%   0.60  52%   0.60  52%  -1.54  55%
11/24/2017   1A   35 ( 5- 6) Texas Tech             1A   19 ( 6- 5) Texas                 160.24   11.79  83%   9.13  77%   7.81  73%  15.47  89%
11/24/2017   1A   52 ( 6- 4) Navy                   1A   63 ( 6- 4) Houston               159.51   -1.97  56%  -0.67  52%  -0.38  51%  -6.94  71%
11/25/2017   1A   43 ( 5- 6) Duke                   1A   17 ( 7- 4) Wake Forest           158.99   15.87  90%  11.36  82%   8.94  76%  13.50  86%
11/25/2017   1A   41 ( 5- 6) Indiana                1A   27 ( 5- 6) Purdue                158.50    3.95  62%   7.09  72%   8.09  74%   1.63  55%
11/25/2017   1A   32 ( 6- 5) Boston College         1A   61 ( 4- 7) Syracuse              158.00  -14.23  87%  -6.33  69%  -5.31  66% -16.77  91%
11/25/2017   1A   39 ( 9- 2) Boise St               1A   60 ( 8- 3) Fresno St             157.71   -7.33  72%  -3.70  62%  -3.95  62% -12.00  83%
11/25/2017   1A   45 ( 7- 4) Texas A&M              1A   38 ( 8- 3) LSU                   156.03   10.51  80%   4.74  65%   6.45  70%  14.26  87%
11/25/2017   1A   31 ( 7- 4) West Virginia          1A    8 (10- 1) Oklahoma              155.84   24.27  97%  15.88  90%  17.44  92%  22.43  96%
11/24/2017   1A   16 ( 6- 5) Iowa                   1A   57 ( 4- 7) Nebraska              154.30  -13.91  87% -11.60  82% -11.60  82% -14.58  88%
11/24/2017   1A   10 (10- 0) Miami FL               1A   56 ( 4- 7) Pittsburgh            152.92  -42.56 100% -17.93  92% -15.50  89% -14.60  88%
11/25/2017   1A    3 (11- 0) Wisconsin              1A   51 ( 5- 6) Minnesota             152.84  -40.66 100% -21.73  96% -19.26  94% -22.06  96%
11/24/2017   1A   42 ( 9- 1) South Florida          1A    9 (10- 0) Central Florida       152.81   20.94  95%  18.03  93%  16.94  91%  14.32  87%
11/24/2017   1A   15 ( 8- 3) Virginia Tech          1A   65 ( 6- 5) Virginia              151.24  -15.50  89% -15.12  89% -15.58  89% -20.22  95%
11/25/2017   1A   68 ( 5- 6) Colorado               1A   44 ( 5- 6) Utah                  151.21    6.94  71%   8.94  76%   8.63  76%  10.27  80%
11/25/2017   1A    4 (10- 1) Clemson                1A   55 ( 8- 3) South Carolina        151.17  -22.58  96% -20.70  95% -20.59  95% -16.54  91%
11/25/2017   1A   36 ( 4- 6) Florida St             1A   72 ( 4- 6) Florida               150.42   -6.27  69%  -8.74  76%  -9.86  79%  -7.58  73%
11/24/2017   1A   59 ( 8- 3) Northern Illinois      1A   82 ( 7- 4) Central Michigan      149.93   -4.79  65%  -5.10  66%  -5.36  67%  -1.13  54%
11/25/2017   1A   71 ( 6- 5) Utah St                1A   91 ( 4- 7) Air Force             149.55   -8.96  76%  -3.74  62%  -2.49  58%  -6.64  70%
11/25/2017   1A   30 ( 8- 3) Michigan St            1A   73 ( 4- 7) Rutgers               149.15  -22.10  96% -11.28  82% -11.59  82% -10.28  80%
11/24/2017   1A   64 ( 8- 3) Ohio U.                1A   83 ( 5- 6) Buffalo               148.61  -16.08  90%  -4.61  64%  -7.64  73% -16.83  91%
11/25/2017   1A   85 ( 5- 6) Temple                 1A   88 ( 2- 9) Tulsa                 148.60  -11.78  83%   1.04  53%   0.99  53%   4.10  63%
11/25/2017   1A   67 ( 3- 8) North Carolina         1A   25 ( 7- 4) North Carolina St     148.55   26.10  98%  15.35  89%  15.35  89%  14.07  87%
11/24/2017   1A   79 ( 6- 5) Western Michigan       1A   49 ( 9- 2) Toledo                148.39   21.40  96%  11.06  81%   9.87  79%  13.06  85%
11/25/2017   1A    5 ( 9- 2) Penn State             1A   58 ( 4- 7) Maryland              148.09  -29.92  99% -22.10  96% -23.92  97% -22.76  97%
11/25/2017   1A   23 ( 7- 4) Louisville             1A   75 ( 7- 4) Kentucky              148.06   -9.83  78% -14.42  88% -13.79  87% -21.23  96%
11/24/2017   1A   46 ( 6- 5) Missouri               1A   89 ( 4- 7) Arkansas              146.73  -16.21  90% -11.11  81%  -9.54  78% -30.63  99%
11/25/2017   1A   80 ( 5- 6) Tulane                 1A   62 ( 6- 5) SMU                   145.07   10.29  80%   8.42  75%   9.90  79%   9.05  77%
11/25/2017   1A   97 ( 6- 4) Texas-San Antonio      1A  100 ( 5- 6) Louisiana Tech        144.93   -2.27  57%   0.72  52%   0.48  52%   3.63  61%
11/25/2017   1A  101 ( 5- 6) UNLV                   1A   96 ( 2- 9) Nevada                141.53   -8.92  76%   5.26  66%   4.08  63%   8.52  75%
11/23/2017   1A   70 ( 5- 6) Mississippi            1A   26 ( 8- 3) Mississippi St        140.99   25.75  98%  17.34  92%  20.57  95%  22.17  96%
11/25/2017   1A   98 ( 7- 4) Southern Miss          1A   78 ( 7- 4) Marshall              140.74    8.65  76%  10.03  79%   8.70  76%   8.41  75%
11/25/2017   1A   93 ( 4- 7) Vanderbilt             1A   87 ( 4- 7) Tennessee             140.72    5.23  66%   3.93  62%   6.57  70%   8.95  76%
11/24/2017   1A  110 ( 6- 5) Western Kentucky       1A  113 ( 6- 4) Florida Int'l         139.31    5.23  66%   1.51  55%   1.02  53%   8.03  74%
11/25/2017   1A   77 ( 6- 3) Arkansas St            1A  111 ( 4- 6) Louisiana-Monroe      139.06  -14.31  87% -10.63  80%  -8.01  74% -14.85  88%
11/25/2017   1A  102 ( 3- 9) Brigham Young          1A  117 ( 3- 8) Hawaii                137.39   -0.17  51%  -3.24  60%  -3.50  61%  -6.34  69%
11/25/2017   1A   24 ( 8- 3) Northwestern           1A   99 ( 2- 9) Illinois              137.27  -37.52 100% -23.70  97% -22.05  96% -20.85  95%
11/25/2017   1A  115 ( 3- 8) Connecticut            1A  103 ( 3- 8) Cincinnati            135.70    1.74  56%   7.17  72%   6.04  69%  -1.82  56%
11/24/2017   1A   84 ( 1-10) Baylor                 1A   12 ( 9- 2) TCU                   134.78   53.17 100%  30.69  99%  29.50  99%  24.06  97%
11/25/2017   1A   94 ( 6- 4) Appalachian St         1A  114 ( 6- 3) Georgia St            134.49   -0.62  52%  -6.26  69%  -9.51  78%  -2.60  58%
11/25/2017   1A  116 ( 3- 7) Idaho                  1A  108 ( 4- 6) New Mexico St         134.47    7.12  72%   5.46  67%   5.46  67%   2.58  58%
11/25/2017   1A  121 ( 1- 9) Georgia Southern       1A  120 ( 5- 5) Louisiana-Lafayette   134.10   20.02  95%   3.18  60%   1.97  56%  -1.01  53%
11/21/2017   1A  105 ( 2- 9) Bowling Green          1A   76 ( 4- 7) Eastern Michigan      133.42   16.85  91%  13.27  86%  14.26  87%  14.87  88%
11/25/2017   1A  119 ( 5- 6) Old Dominion           1A  104 ( 5- 6) Middle Tennessee St   132.59    4.33  64%   7.92  74%   7.67  73%   3.86  62%
11/25/2017   1A  106 ( 1-10) Oregon St              1A   33 ( 6- 5) Oregon                127.62   36.82 100%  27.48  99%  27.03  98%   8.25  75%
11/24/2017   1A  112 ( 3- 8) New Mexico             1A   53 ( 9- 2) San Diego St          127.28   39.44 100%  22.69  97%  23.67  97%  23.85  97%
11/25/2017   1A  107 ( 3- 8) East Carolina          1A   34 ( 9- 1) Memphis               124.72   42.90 100%  26.33  98%  28.11  99%  26.16  98%
11/21/2017   1A  124 ( 2- 9) Kent St                1A   86 ( 6- 5) Akron                 120.99   28.51  99%  19.01  94%  18.62  93%  23.76  97%
11/25/2017   1A   92 ( 8- 3) North Texas            1A  126 ( 1-10) Rice                  120.43  -38.17 100% -15.78  90% -18.21  93% -14.58  88%
11/25/2017   1A  118 ( 1-10) Kansas                 1A   14 ( 8- 3) Oklahoma St           117.67   54.86 100%  42.17 100%  40.47 100%  33.49 100%
11/24/2017   1A  127 ( 2- 9) Texas St-San Marcos    1A   81 ( 8- 2) Troy                  116.28   44.42 100%  25.00  98%  23.10  97%  15.71  90%
11/21/2017   1A   90 ( 4- 7) Miami OH               1A  125 ( 2- 9) Ball St               116.13  -20.00  95% -16.10  90% -20.78  95% -29.09  99%
11/25/2017   1A  129 ( 0-11) UTEP                   1A  109 ( 7- 4) Alabama-Birmingham    113.84   49.74 100%  22.15  96%  18.55  93%  27.42  99%
11/25/2017   1A   69 ( 7- 4) Wyoming                1A  130 ( 1-11) San Jose St           111.50  -46.15 100% -32.54 100% -27.70  99% -38.58 100%
11/25/2017   1A   48 ( 8- 3) Florida Atlantic       1A  128 ( 1-10) UNC-Charlotte         111.37  -48.11 100% -31.83  99% -33.40 100% -41.52 100%
11/25/2017   1B    4 ( 8- 3) Western Illinois       1B    8 ( 9- 2) Weber St              156.52    5.83  68%  -2.27  57%   0.61  52%   3.57  61%
11/25/2017   1B   26 ( 8- 3) Samford                1B   28 (10- 1) Kennesaw St           140.65    7.11  72%  -0.64  52%   0.47  51%   7.39  72%
11/25/2017   1B   14 ( 7- 4) Furman                 1B   33 ( 8- 3) Elon                  135.96    4.23  63%  -7.05  71%  -5.70  68%  -8.67  76%
11/25/2017   1B   58 ( 8- 3) Central Conn St        1B   31 ( 7- 4) New Hampshire         122.13    6.48  70%  11.66  83%  11.50  82%  11.95  83%
11/25/2017   1B   47 ( 9- 2) San Diego              1B   13 ( 7- 4) Northern Arizona      122.06    1.69  55%  17.45  92%  17.38  92%   5.88  68%
11/25/2017   1B    5 ( 7- 4) South Dakota           1B   57 ( 8- 3) Nicholls St           119.10   -8.01  74% -24.54  98% -26.22  98% -20.69  95%
11/25/2017   1B   73 ( 9- 1) Grambling St           1B   87 ( 7- 3) Southern U.           113.11  -14.60  88%  -5.37  67%  -7.23  72%  -6.35  69%
11/25/2017   1B   80 ( 5- 6) Lehigh                 1B   19 ( 9- 2) Stony Brook           107.11   34.51 100%  25.99  98%  25.99  98%  25.35  98%
11/25/2017   1B   82 ( 5- 5) Prairie View A&M       1B  117 ( 2- 8) Texas Southern         95.93  -18.70  93% -16.68  91% -12.77  85%  -5.25  66%
11/23/2017   NA   73 ( 0- 9) Edward Waters          1B  110 ( 4- 6) Alabama St             35.96   46.46 100%  46.69 100%  48.74 100%  52.43 100%
11/25/2017    2    4 (10- 1) Ferris St               2    1 (11- 0) Fort Hays St          139.87   11.40  82%   6.35  69%   4.31  64%  11.28  82%
11/25/2017    2   12 (10- 1) TAMU-Commerce           2   11 (11- 0) Central Washington    135.77    9.60  78%   2.74  59%   1.10  54%   6.98  71%
11/25/2017    2    7 ( 9- 3) Harding                 2    6 (11- 1) Ashland               135.43   15.84  90%   4.98  66%   6.66  70%  -8.48  75%
11/25/2017    2   25 (10- 0) Midwestern St           2   20 (12- 0) Minn St-Mankato       129.62    2.89  59%   6.72  70%   0.42  51%   2.84  59%
11/25/2017    2   15 (10- 2) Findlay                 2   26 (10- 1) Assumption            129.58    7.41  72%  -4.24  63%   5.05  66%   9.14  77%
11/25/2017    2   34 ( 9- 3) West Chester            2   13 (11- 0) Indiana PA            118.86   28.70  99%  12.28  84%   9.53  78%  16.56  91%
11/25/2017    2   35 ( 9- 3) Delta St                2   14 ( 9- 2) West Alabama          116.76   12.80  85%  12.20  84%  13.06  85%  11.17  81%
11/25/2017    2   32 ( 8- 3) West Florida            2   19 ( 9- 3) West Georgia          116.60    5.42  67%   8.76  76%  10.33  80%  -1.92  56%
11/25/2017    3    5 ( 9- 1) Linfield                3    1 (11- 0) Mary Hardin-Baylor    108.16   24.62  98%  21.82  96%  16.06  90%  13.22  86%
11/25/2017    3   10 (10- 1) Wesley                  3    7 (11- 0) Brockport St          108.03   15.03  89%   6.28  69%   6.49  70%  14.35  88%
11/25/2017    3    9 (11- 0) Trine                   3   31 (11- 0) Wartburg              101.80    0.14  50%  -9.32  77%  -0.55  52%  -8.94  76%
11/25/2017    3   19 (10- 1) North Central           3    4 (10- 0) UW-Oshkosh            100.07   16.71  91%  16.10  90%  12.03  83%   6.67  70%
11/25/2017    3   17 (10- 1) Frostburg St            3   36 (11- 0) Wash & Jeff            94.67    7.29  72%  -6.92  71% -10.22  79% -17.95  93%
11/25/2017    3   41 (11- 0) Berry                   3   15 (10- 1) St Thomas              89.62   -3.05  60%  12.86  85%  15.02  89%  26.73  98%
11/25/2017    3   12 (11- 0) Case Western Reserve    3    6 (11- 0) Mount Union            86.20    8.69  76%   8.44  75%  29.04  99%  11.38  82%
11/25/2017   NA    5 (11- 0) Southern Oregon        NA    3 (11- 0) Lindsey Wilson        105.63    7.45  72%  11.16  81%   8.00  74%   2.60  58%
11/25/2017   NA    6 (10- 1) Northwestern IA        NA    4 (11- 0) St Francis IN         102.26   14.98  89%  10.75  81%  10.28  80%  -0.97  53%
11/25/2017   NA   10 ( 9- 1) Georgetown KY          NA    1 (10- 0) Reinhardt              92.22   22.10  96%  29.36  99%  21.13  95%  27.19  99%
11/25/2017   NA   17 (10- 1) St Xavier              NA    2 (12- 0) Morningside            81.37   28.83  99%  28.93  99%  32.17 100%  29.98  99%